{
  "asset": "Texas prediction markets claim audit",
  "url": "https://theplaybookusa.com/states/texas/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-claim-audit.json",
  "page": "https://theplaybookusa.com/states/texas/prediction-markets/",
  "last_checked": "2026-05-23",
  "license": "https://theplaybookusa.com/terms-of-service/",
  "private_data_policy": "No private account numbers, SSN, ID images, bank data, card data, passwords, seed phrases, private keys or private medical data.",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Prediction market access means Texas sports betting is legal",
      "weak_signal": "App or market access is treated as Texas sportsbook approval",
      "evidence_to_save": ["exact wording", "URL", "contract terms", "captured date", "account-state prompt"],
      "source_owner": ["CFTC/event-contract route", "Texas sports-gambling source route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/sports-betting/",
      "recheck_trigger": "Texas law change, CFTC action, platform terms change or state-access change"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Sports event contract is the same as a sportsbook ticket",
      "weak_signal": "Odds-like screen or sports outcome market is treated as sportsbook recourse",
      "evidence_to_save": ["contract ID", "fee schedule", "settlement rule", "resolution source", "support path"],
      "source_owner": ["platform terms", "CFTC/event-contract route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/prediction-markets/",
      "recheck_trigger": "contract rules, settlement source, fee schedule or support route changes"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "DFS, pick'em, prediction market and sportsbook are collapsed into one sports route",
      "weak_signal": "Product label is used instead of source ownership",
      "evidence_to_save": ["product terms", "contest rules", "event contract terms", "state clause"],
      "source_owner": ["Texas laws", "platform terms"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/laws/",
      "recheck_trigger": "Texas AG, court, statute, platform or product-lane change"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Offshore or crypto sports market is presented as a prediction-market route",
      "weak_signal": "Foreign license, no-KYC claim, no-VPN claim or crypto cashier replaces source checks",
      "evidence_to_save": ["license claim", "cashier terms", "support route", "payment reference", "TXID if crypto"],
      "source_owner": ["offshore operator terms", "Texas scam and crypto routes"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/offshore-casinos/",
      "recheck_trigger": "license claim, support path, crypto address, cashier or state wording changes"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Tax treatment is inferred from a prediction-market label",
      "weak_signal": "Platform marketing copy is treated as filing guidance",
      "evidence_to_save": ["contract statement", "fee record", "settlement record", "timestamp", "support label"],
      "source_owner": ["IRS/current federal tax sources", "Texas tax-record route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/taxes/",
      "recheck_trigger": "IRS guidance, form wording, statement format or tax-year rules change"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Trading pressure is ignored because the product is called a market",
      "weak_signal": "Chasing, urgency, repeated funding or secrecy is treated as normal trading behavior",
      "evidence_to_save": ["public-safe account notices", "support messages", "funding prompts"],
      "source_owner": ["responsible gambling support route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/responsible/",
      "recheck_trigger": "pressure, repeated deposits, loss recovery or household risk appears"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Platform brand is treated as recommendation or Texas approval",
      "weak_signal": "Kalshi, FanDuel Predicts, Polymarket or Crypto.com wording is used as a shortcut instead of source checks",
      "evidence_to_save": ["platform terms", "state eligibility wording", "contract terms", "fees", "settlement source", "support path"],
      "source_owner": ["platform terms", "CFTC/event-contract route", "Texas law route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/prediction-markets/",
      "recheck_trigger": "platform availability, state eligibility, CFTC action, support path or Texas law changes"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "Settlement status is treated as payout approval",
      "weak_signal": "Market open, order matched, contract held, event resolved or settlement pending status is read as final cashout",
      "evidence_to_save": ["contract ID if public-safe", "event wording", "resolution source", "settlement screen", "support ticket", "withdrawal request ID if relevant"],
      "source_owner": ["platform settlement terms", "support route", "payout evidence route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/prediction-markets/evidence-checklist/",
      "recheck_trigger": "settlement pending, disputed result, support reply, KYC request or withdrawal delay appears"
    },
    {
      "claim_pattern": "CFTC route and Texas law route are collapsed into one answer",
      "weak_signal": "Federal event-contract status is used to answer Texas sportsbook licensing or Texas recourse by itself",
      "evidence_to_save": ["CFTC source checked date", "Texas source checked date", "platform terms", "state claim wording"],
      "source_owner": ["CFTC/event-contract route", "Texas law route"],
      "correct_route": "/states/texas/laws/",
      "recheck_trigger": "CFTC guidance, Texas statute, Texas AG/court action, platform terms or product wording changes"
    }
  ]
}