📈 FREE TOOL · MAR 2026

Expected Value Calculator — EV in Betting

Find out if a bet has positive expected value (EV). Enter your stake, American odds, and estimated win probability.

Last updated:
Expected Value (EV)
$0.00
EV%: 0.00%
Implied probability from odds: 0.00%
📐 How EV is calculated: EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) − (Loss Probability × Stake). For positive odds: Profit = Stake × (Odds/100). For negative odds: Profit = Stake × (100/|Odds|). Positive EV means the bet is profitable in the long run.

📘 How to Use the EV Calculator

1. Enter your stake
The amount you plan to wager.
2. Enter the American odds
Use format like -110 for favorites or +150 for underdogs.
3. Enter your estimated win probability (%)
This is your best estimate of the chance your bet wins.
4. Click "Calculate EV"
The tool shows your expected value in dollars and as a percentage of stake, plus the implied probability from the odds.

📊 Understanding Expected Value

🎯 EV Betting Strategies

Find Value Bets

Compare your estimated win probability to the implied probability from the odds. If your estimate is higher, you have a +EV bet.

Use Statistical Models

Improve your win probability estimates using advanced stats, team analysis, and historical data. Accurate estimates are key.

Bankroll Management

Even with +EV bets, variance can cause short-term losses. Bet only 1-2% of your bankroll per wager.

Combine with Kelly Criterion

Use your EV calculation with the Kelly formula to find the optimal bet size for maximum growth.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?

Expected value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet repeatedly. Positive EV means a profitable bet in the long run.

How do I calculate expected value?

EV = (Probability of Win * Profit if Win) - (Probability of Loss * Stake). For American odds, profit is stake * (odds/100) for positive odds, or stake * (100/|odds|) for negative odds.

What is a good expected value?

Positive EV is good. A 5-10% positive EV is considered strong. Negative EV bets should be avoided unless you're betting for entertainment.

How accurate is my estimated win probability?

Your estimated win probability is the most critical input. Use statistical models, team analysis, and historical data to improve accuracy.

Can I use this calculator for any sport?

Yes, expected value applies to any bet with a binary outcome (win/loss). For multi-outcome bets, you need to sum EV across all outcomes.

Is this EV calculator free?

Yes, our expected value calculator is completely free. No sign-up required. Use it to find value bets.

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