Legal, state, or operator approval question
This tool does not verify legality, state approval, operator status, or license claims.
Use state guides California bonus claim checklist
Bonus value and wagering estimate
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Last updated May 14, 2026
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Formula reviewed May 14, 2026
Casino Bonus Calculator
Bonus Value Calculator for wagering, expected loss and cashout limits. This tool estimates casino bonus value across common offer types: bonus-only, deposit-plus-bonus, no-deposit, sticky, free-spin and cashback-style promos. It uses offer amount, wagering basis, game contribution, RTP, optional max cashout and format-specific inputs to show burden, expected loss, cap pressure and confidence level.
Written by Michael Johnson. Edited by Sarah Roberts. Responsible-gambling language reviewed by David Thompson. Methodology: How we test.
Short answer: choose the bonus mode before trusting the number
This page solves one job: turning bonus terms into a cautious estimate of wagering burden, expected loss and value limits.
Start by matching the offer type. A 35x bonus-only offer, a 35x deposit-plus-bonus offer, a sticky bonus, a capped no-deposit chip and a free-spin package can all look similar in marketing copy, but the math and risk are different.
Disclosure
If commercial links appear elsewhere on the site, they do not change the formulas, assumptions, or limits shown here. This page is an educational estimate, not a guarantee that a bonus will clear, pay, or remain available after review.
Use the result as a model, not as permission to claim
This calculator handles common bonus math, not operator approval. It can model bonus-only, deposit-plus-bonus, no-deposit, sticky, free-spin and cashback-style scenarios, but the result still depends on exact terms, game eligibility, max bet, expiry, KYC, payment rules and the operator's current lobby.
The output is an educational estimate of burden and expected loss under one RTP assumption. It does not prove that an offer is good, withdrawable, legal, available, approved by any state, or suitable for your bankroll.
What this tool owns and does not own
Use it for
Common casino bonus formats where the offer type, bonus amount, wagering basis, contribution rate, RTP assumption and any max cashout cap are visible before you opt in.
Do not use it for
Operator approval, legal availability, taxes, KYC, withdrawal disputes, payment reviews, personalized gambling advice, exact short-session outcomes, or any attempt to recover losses.
Before you enter numbers
Privacy: the calculator runs in your browser. Do not enter your name, email, SSN, document number, account number, card details, or private casino credentials. Use rounded offer numbers from the terms instead.
Responsible-play boundary: if the result makes you feel urgency, chasing pressure, repeated-deposit pressure, or a need to raise stakes to clear the offer, stop using the tool. Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET for confidential support. State-specific resources may vary.
One-click scenario presets
Load a realistic example, then change the numbers. These presets are teaching examples, not recommendations to claim a bonus.
Choose a preset to see how the calculator changes.
Run the estimate
This page does not convert a complicated offer into a trustworthy result. If the terms mention expiry, max-bet traps, excluded games, changing RTP, staged release, or unclear withdrawal review, treat the result as lower confidence immediately.
How to read the result
Modeled bonus EV
This starts with the modeled value of the promotional component and subtracts expected loss from wagering. It is not your expected ending balance, payout promise, withdrawal estimate, or proof that the offer is worth taking.
Wagering base and effective multiple
These show whether the offer is being multiplied from bonus only, deposit plus bonus, free-spin value, cashback value, or another modeled base. Low game contribution can make the effective burden much larger.
Cap and confidence
A max cashout can limit upside even when the raw value looks positive. Confidence falls when the offer is sticky, capped, free-spin based, cashback based, or missing exact terms.
Important: modeled bonus EV is not your expected ending balance. It is the modeled value of the promotional component after expected wagering loss.
Calculator accuracy limits
| Confidence | When it applies | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| High | Simple cashable bonus-only terms, visible contribution, visible RTP, no cap, no expiry pressure. | Use the result as a cautious model, then still verify operator and withdrawal rules. |
| Medium | Deposit-plus-bonus, no-deposit free-chip with clear cap, cashback with clear terms, or fixed cap with clear math. | Treat caps, contribution and expiry as the main risk signals. |
| Low | Sticky bonus, free spins with rough value, unclear spin size, high exposure, max-bet pressure or short expiry. | Do not rely on the number without saving exact terms and checking safer routes. |
| Do not model | Winnings-only, staged release, split-wallet, hidden contribution, unclear cap, or operator-reviewed terms you cannot inspect. | Use the terms checklist and avoid treating the calculator as decision-ready. |
Mode-specific next action after the result
The safest next step is never a deposit button. Use the result to decide what to verify, compare or skip.
| Mode | If result is positive | If result is negative | If confidence is low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus-only | Verify contribution, cap, max bet, expiry and withdrawal terms. | Skip or compare another offer. | Save terms and confirm the wagering base. |
| Deposit + bonus | Check whether the larger wagering burden is practical without pressure. | Usually skip or use a wagering simulator before considering it. | Verify whether deposit is really included in wagering. |
| No-deposit | Verify cap, KYC, eligible games and withdrawal method. | Skip. | Read the no-deposit terms before modeling again. |
| Sticky | Verify whether any principal is withdrawable. | Skip. | Read sticky/phantom bonus wording line by line. |
| Free spins | Check spin value, game, winnings cap and wagering on winnings. | Skip. | Use the free-spins guide before trusting the number. |
| Cashback | Check whether credit is cash or bonus credit with wagering. | Skip. | Read cashback/lossback terms and cap timing. |
Offer quality signals to check before trusting the number
These are not recommendations to claim a bonus. They are red flags and cleaner-term signals to help you decide whether the calculator result deserves confidence.
| Signal | Usually cleaner | Usually riskier | User-safe action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wagering base | Bonus-only wording. | Deposit + bonus, winnings-only, staged release or split wallet. | Choose the matching mode or do not model if the base is unclear. |
| Contribution | 100% on the games you actually intend to inspect. | 10%, 5%, 1%, excluded games, or contribution hidden behind terms. | Use custom contribution and expect the effective multiple to rise. |
| Cashout cap | No clear restrictive cap or a cap that remains above modeled value. | Low fixed cap, x bonus/deposit cap, unknown cap or max conversion. | Select the cap type before relying on modeled EV. |
| Max bet | Your normal average bet sits below the max-bet rule. | Average bet would breach max bet or require unusually tiny stakes. | Do not raise stakes or extend sessions to make the math fit. |
| Expiry | Enough time without daily pressure. | Short expiry that forces long sessions or repeated deposits. | Treat time pressure as a reason to skip. |
| KYC and payment terms | Visible before opt-in and consistent with withdrawal route. | Hidden until cashout, method restrictions or unclear verification rules. | Save terms and verify the operator separately. |
Formula and no-JavaScript fallback
If the live calculator does not run, you can still estimate the offer manually with the same model.
Mode value = cash bonus, free spins x estimated spin value, or cashback base x cashback rate
Wagering base = mode value, or deposit + mode value when terms say deposit plus bonus
Adjusted wagering = wagering base x wagering multiple / contribution decimal
Expected loss = adjusted wagering x (1 - RTP decimal)
Modeled bonus EV = modeled promotional value - expected loss
Cap-adjusted ceiling = min(modeled cashable value, resolved cap) - expected loss, when a cap exists
Example: a $100 bonus, 35x wagering, 100% contribution, and 96% RTP creates $3,500 adjusted wagering, $140 expected loss, and a raw value of -$40 before KYC, expiry, max-bet, cap, withdrawal, volatility, or operator review risk. Change any input and the model changes.
Bonus mode matrix
| Offer wording | Calculator mode | Main formula move | Risk if misread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35x bonus only | Bonus-only cashable | Wagering base = cash bonus. | Missing a cap, expiry or excluded game can make the result too optimistic. |
| 35x bonus + deposit | Deposit + bonus wagering | Wagering base = deposit + bonus. | Treating it as bonus-only can understate the wagering burden by a lot. |
| Free chip / no deposit | No-deposit / free-chip estimate | Mode value = promotional credit, then apply wagering and cap. | Max cashout and verification rules often dominate the headline value. |
| Sticky / phantom bonus | Sticky / phantom bonus | Bonus principal is treated as non-cashable unless terms say otherwise. | The bonus may fund play without being withdrawable. |
| Free spins | Free spins with estimated value | Mode value = spins x estimated spin value. | Spin size, game choice, winnings cap and wagering can change the value sharply. |
| Cashback / lossback | Cashback / lossback estimate | Mode value = qualifying loss x cashback rate. | Cashback can be credit with wagering, cap, expiry or payment restrictions. |
Compare two offers side by side
Use this mini-check after running the main calculator for each offer. It keeps the comparison on burden, caps and confidence instead of pushing you toward a deposit.
Offer A
Offer B
Compare only after checking the exact terms for both offers.
Manual term parser checklist
This is not an AI parser. Use it as a safe reading checklist before trusting the calculator result.
0 of 6 term checks completed. Do not treat the calculator result as decision-ready yet.
Bonus clause decoder
Select the phrases you see in the offer. This linkable decoder at /tools/bonus/#offer-terms-decoder does not parse terms automatically; it helps you choose the safer calculator mode or stop before modeling.
Select phrases to get a safer mode suggestion.
Printable evidence packet
Generate a plain-text summary of the assumptions you used. Keep it with screenshots of the offer terms if you need to compare offers later. Share assumptions only, not private account or identity data.
Run the calculator to generate an evidence packet.
Advanced variance stress test
This rough simulator estimates completion and bust pressure from the current calculator result. It is not a prediction, guarantee, or gambling strategy. Use it to spot offers that create unrealistic exposure before you opt in.
Volatility changes the payout pattern while preserving the selected RTP target in the simplified model.
Enter starting funds and average bet in the calculator before running this stress test.
| Chance of clearing wagering | Not modeled |
|---|---|
| Chance of busting before completion | Not modeled |
| Median simulated result | Not modeled |
| 5th / 95th percentile | Not modeled |
| Cap binding probability | Not modeled |
| Method item | Current assumption | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Simulation type | Rough browser-based stress test using RTP-preserving discrete outcome profiles. | Not a certified RNG, paytable or game-specific simulator. |
| Runs | 1,000 quick runs or 5,000 deeper runs. | More runs reduce noise but do not make the model predictive. |
| Volatility profiles | Low, medium, high and very high change the payout spread while scaling multipliers to the selected RTP. | Real slot, table-game or video-poker volatility can differ sharply by title and paytable. |
| Inputs used | Current wagering target, RTP, starting funds, average bet, max bet and modeled cap. | It does not read real casino terms, operator wallet rules or game history. |
| Outputs | Clear chance, bust chance, median result, 5th/95th percentile and cap binding probability. | High bust risk means skip or pause, not increase bet size. |
| Volatility profile | Round outcome model | Mean return target | Best use | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Tighter profile with more small returns. | Scaled to selected RTP. | Table-like or lower-variance pressure check. | Not ruleset-specific. |
| Medium | Wider profile with fewer small returns and larger occasional outcomes. | Scaled to selected RTP. | Common slot-like pressure check. | Not title-specific. |
| High | Wide profile with many dead rounds and larger rare outcomes. | Scaled to selected RTP. | High-volatility slot pressure. | Rough only. |
| Very high | Long-tail profile with rare large outcomes. | Scaled to selected RTP. | Jackpot-like exposure check. | Not a jackpot model. |
| Example | What to compare | What it teaches |
|---|---|---|
| 96% RTP, low volatility, $100 starting funds, $2 average bet | Run against the same inputs on high volatility. | Same RTP can show different practical pressure. |
| 96% RTP, high volatility, $100 starting funds, $2 average bet | Compare bust chance and 5th percentile. | Variance can make clearing harder even when EV is unchanged. |
| 35x wagering with short expiry | Check rounds, wagering per day and stress-test pressure together. | Time pressure is a reason to skip, not extend play. |
| Capped no-deposit chip with high volatility | Check cap binding probability and cap-adjusted ceiling. | A cap can limit upside while volatility still raises bust pressure. |
Simulation output is a pressure signal only. If the stress test shows high bust risk or uncomfortable exposure, skip the offer instead of raising stakes or extending play.
Common clause presets
Use these examples to choose the right mode before entering numbers. If the clause does not match one of these patterns, save the terms and treat the calculator result as low confidence.
| Clause example | Safer setting | Confidence note |
|---|---|---|
| 35xB or 35x bonus | Bonus-only cashable mode; wagering multiple 35. | Cleaner only if contribution, RTP, cap and expiry are visible. |
| 35xD+B or deposit plus bonus | Deposit + bonus wagering mode; enter deposit and bonus. | Burden is usually much heavier than bonus-only wording. |
| 30x winnings from free spins | Free spins estimate; enter spins, estimated spin value, wagering and cap. | Low confidence unless spin value, game and cap are explicit. |
| Max cashout 10x deposit | Cap type = x deposit amount; cap value = 10. | Cap can dominate the result even when modeled EV is positive. |
| Sticky or non-withdrawable bonus | Sticky / phantom bonus mode. | Bonus principal may not be cashable, so treat value as low confidence. |
| Cashback issued as bonus credit | Cashback / lossback mode plus wagering and cap check. | Do not treat cashback as cash until withdrawal rules are visible. |
| Winnings-only wagering | Do not model as a normal cashable offer. | Use the terms checklist and get exact rules before relying on any estimate. |
Bonus clause library
This linkable library groups common phrases by the input they affect. Use it with the bonus clause decoder before entering numbers.
Wagering base phrases
Look for 35xB, bonus only, D+B, deposit plus bonus, winnings only, staged release, or split-wallet wording.
Cap phrases
Look for max cashout, max winnings, max conversion, x bonus, x deposit, free-spin winnings cap, or cap only on promotional winnings.
Sticky phrases
Look for sticky, phantom, non-withdrawable, bonus funds removed on withdrawal, or only winnings above the bonus can be cashed out.
Free-spins phrases
Look for spin count, eligible game, coin value, spin winnings, wagering on winnings, free-spin cap and expiry clock.
Cashback phrases
Look for qualifying loss period, refund cap, cash vs bonus credit, wagering on refund, excluded games and claim window.
Do not model phrases
Stop if the terms hide contribution, say operator review decides eligibility, use winnings-only without detail, or require support approval before withdrawal.
Real terms examples without brands
These examples are anonymized patterns, not recommendations. They show how the same headline bonus can lead to different calculator modes and confidence levels.
Example A: 35xB, no cap, 100% slots
Use bonus-only mode. Confidence can be higher if RTP, contribution, max bet, expiry and withdrawal terms are visible.
Example B: 35xD+B, 20% table contribution
Use deposit + bonus mode and 20% contribution. Expect the effective multiple and adjusted wagering to jump sharply.
Example C: no-deposit chip, $50 max cashout
Use no-deposit free-chip mode with fixed cap. Check KYC, withdrawal method, eligible games and expiry before trusting the result.
Example D: cashback issued as bonus credit
Use cashback mode, then add wagering and cap terms. Do not treat the cashback percentage as cash in hand.
Read these terms before entering numbers
| Term phrase | Calculator input | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 30x bonus only | Wagering multiple = 30; model stays valid | This is the cleanest version of the tool's intended scope. |
| Slots count 100%, blackjack 5% | Game contribution | Low contribution can multiply the real playthrough burden far beyond the headline multiple. |
| Max cashout $100 | Do not trust this simple model alone | The cap can dominate the entire value of the offer even if the raw EV looks positive. |
| Deposit plus bonus or winnings-only wagering | Choose deposit + bonus if the deposit is included; do not model winnings-only as normal cash. | The calculator will understate burden if it assumes the wrong wagering base. |
| Sticky or phantom bonus | Choose sticky / phantom bonus | The bonus principal is usually not withdrawable, so raw cashable value should be treated much more cautiously. |
| 50 free spins, winnings max $50 | Choose free spins, enter spins, estimated spin value, wagering, RTP, and cap | Free-spin value depends on estimated spin size, game, cap, and any wagering on spin winnings. |
| 10% cashback up to $100 | Choose cashback, enter loss base, rate, wagering, RTP, and cap | Cashback can still have wagering or cap rules; do not treat the headline percentage as cash in hand. |
Do not calculate until you know
- Whether the bonus is cashable, sticky, or split into stages.
- Whether wagering applies to bonus only, deposit plus bonus, or later winnings.
- What games count and at what percentage.
- Whether there is a max cashout, expiry, max-bet rule, or excluded-game list.
- Whether withdrawal rules or payment restrictions can kill the practical value after the math looks acceptable.
Model assumptions
Mode-based wagering base
The calculator changes the wagering base by mode. Bonus-only uses the bonus value; deposit-plus-bonus uses deposit plus modeled bonus value; free spins and cashback use estimated promotional value.
Cashable value is not always the headline
Sticky bonuses, capped no-deposit chips, free-spin winnings, cashback credits and staged releases can make headline value much weaker than the number in the promotion.
Single RTP assumption
The expected loss comes from one RTP estimate. If the real game mix changes, the loss estimate changes with it. If the RTP source is unclear, use the RTP source confidence check before treating the number as evidence.
No operator review in the math
The formula does not model KYC, withdrawal friction, term disputes, retroactive bonus-cancellation decisions, state availability, payment method rules, or tax reporting.
Where a good-looking bonus can fail
High headline value, low game contribution
A 30x bonus looks normal until the intended game counts only 10 percent. The real playthrough burden behaves more like 300x of the relevant play.
Max cashout dominates the EV
A cap can erase most of the upside after the clearing effort is done. That makes raw EV alone a poor decision tool.
Excluded games invalidate the input
If the game you expect to use is excluded or contribution changes mid-offer, the page can no longer describe the real burden safely.
Bonus decision ladder before using the result
| Step | Question | If unclear, go here |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Term type | Have you matched the offer to the right mode: bonus-only, deposit-plus-bonus, no-deposit, sticky, free spins or cashback? | Bonus terms glossary |
| 2. Playthrough burden | Does game contribution change the real wagering burden? | game contribution calculator |
| 3. Cashout cap | Does max cashout dominate the outcome? | Withdrawal verification |
| 4. Safety signal | Did support change terms, ask for extra payment, or move you off-channel? | Scam signs |
What to save before relying on the bonus estimate
- Offer URL, date, bonus amount, and full terms before opt-in.
- Wagering base wording: bonus-only, deposit-plus-bonus, sticky, staged, or winnings-only.
- Game contribution table and excluded games.
- Free-spin count, spin value assumptions, cashback base, cashback rate, cap and expiry if the offer uses those terms.
- Max cashout, max bet, expiry, payment restriction, and KYC wording.
- Support transcript if any term is unclear or changed after opt-in.
When not to calculate
- Do not rely on the result when the offer hides the wagering basis, contribution rules, max bet, expiry, cap, or excluded-game list.
- Do not rely on it when staged-release, winnings-only, split-wallet, tournament, loyalty-point, or operator-review rules decide the actual cash value.
- Do not rely on it when payment-method restrictions or withdrawal review can decide the real outcome after the wagering is complete.
- Do not rely on it as a legality, tax, operator-approval, or loss-recovery shortcut. Those are separate questions.
Worked examples
Bonus-only case
$100 bonus, 35x wagering, 100% contribution, 96% RTP. Adjusted wagering is $3,500, expected loss is $140, and simple bonus-only EV is $-40.
Deposit + bonus trap
$100 bonus plus $100 deposit at 35x doubles the wagering base to $200. At 96% RTP, adjusted wagering is $7,000 and expected loss is $280 before other terms.
Low contribution drag
If a $100 bonus counts only 20% toward wagering, adjusted wagering rises to $17,500. The headline multiple no longer describes the real burden.
Max-cashout cap
A $100 no-deposit chip capped at $50 cannot be treated like a normal $100 cash bonus. The cap-adjusted ceiling may be negative after expected loss.
Sticky bonus
A sticky $100 bonus may help fund play, but the principal is usually not withdrawable. Treat the cashable value as lower confidence unless terms say otherwise.
Free spins
Fifty free spins at an estimated $0.20 each start as a rough $10 modeled value before wagering, cap and game eligibility rules. The estimate is only as good as the spin-value assumption.
Cashback / lossback
A 10% cashback on $200 qualifying loss starts as $20 modeled value. If that credit has wagering, the expected loss can still erase much of the headline recovery.
Expiry pressure
A short expiry can push higher stakes or longer sessions. The calculator does not turn deadline pressure into a reason to keep playing.
Stop signal
If the result makes you want to deposit again, raise stakes, or recover losses, stop using the tool and use responsible-gambling support instead.
What this calculator does not do
No operator approval
The calculator cannot verify whether an operator will approve, void, limit, review, or pay a bonus-related withdrawal.
No exact session forecast
RTP-based expected loss is a long-run model. It does not predict whether one short session will clear, bust, win, or lose.
No full terms parser
The tool highlights common math traps, but it does not read every clause in a real operator's terms or replace the exact bonus rules.
No legality or tax result
State approval and tax reporting belong on dedicated pages, not inside this bonus calculator.
When this tool stops being the right owner
Account, payout, or document issue
Move to banking, withdrawal, or scam routes when support, KYC, payment, or account records decide the outcome.
Withdrawal verificationControl, chasing, or harm issue
Use responsible gambling support before opening another calculator or gambling page.
Responsible gambling basicsUse the right page after the bonus model is clear
wagering requirements calculator
Use when contribution rate, base type, or playthrough burden is the main issue.
Bonus Terms Glossary
Use when the wording is not simple enough to calculate.
Withdrawal Verification
Use when bonus value depends on KYC, pending review, or cashout status.
Bankroll Planner
Use when the offer changes session exposure or chasing risk.
slot RTP volatility calculator
Use when a slot-based bonus depends on RTP, volatility, spin pace and session exposure.
Scam Signs
Use when support, payment, or term changes look unsafe.
Reality Checks
Use when the bonus is pushing urgency, chasing, or repeated deposits.
Bonus type guides for term context
Use these pages to understand the offer type before trusting the calculator mode. They are context routes, not a result-based recommendation to claim an offer.
Welcome bonus terms
Check deposit match, wagering base, max bet, cap and expiry language.
No-deposit bonus terms
Check free-chip caps, KYC requirements and withdrawal restrictions before modeling.
Free spins terms
Check spin count, spin value, eligible games, winnings cap and wagering on winnings.
Cashback terms
Check whether cashback is cash or bonus credit, and whether it has wagering or expiry.
Crypto bonus terms
Check bonus terms separately from payment, KYC, volatility and withdrawal rules.
How casino bonuses work
Use this if the offer type or wagering basis is still unclear.
Formula registry
| Registry item | Current value | Why users should care |
|---|---|---|
| Tool type | Multi-mode casino bonus value estimator. | It covers the main bonus formats users see without pretending to verify operator approval. |
| Formula version | Bonus Value Model v2.2, reviewed May 14, 2026. | The formula is transparent and date-stamped instead of hidden behind a score. |
| Inputs | Offer type, cash bonus, deposit, wagering multiple, preset or custom contribution, RTP, cap type, cap value, free spins, spin value, cashback base and rate. | No account, identity, payment, or private casino data is needed. |
| Inputs | Optional feasibility inputs: expiry days, starting funds, max allowed bet and normal average bet. | These show pressure and exposure without telling anyone to play longer or stake higher. |
| Outputs | Wagering base, adjusted wagering, expected loss, modeled bonus EV, cap-adjusted ceiling, effective multiple, confidence level, expiry pressure, estimated rounds, bankroll exposure, comparison note, printable evidence packet, variance stress-test summary and model label. | The output explains burden and risk, not where to deposit. |
| Known exclusions | Exact game-specific survival probability, certified RNG/paytable simulation, real session prediction, operator approval, KYC, taxes, legality, payment review, support disputes and full terms parsing. | The stress test is a rough pressure estimate, not a certified game-specific probability model. |
QA tests and edge cases
| Test case | Expected behavior | User-safe response |
|---|---|---|
| Bonus-only normal input | $100, 35x, 100%, 96% returns $100 base, $3,500 wagering and $140 expected loss. | Show the estimate and remind the user it is not a payout or approval guarantee. |
| Deposit + bonus | $100 deposit plus $100 bonus at 35x uses a $200 wagering base. | Warn that the burden is heavier than bonus-only wording. |
| Zero or negative bonus | Reject the input. | Ask for a positive bonus amount instead of producing false precision. |
| Contribution below 100% | Increase adjusted wagering by dividing by contribution decimal. | Make the heavier burden visible before the user trusts the headline multiple. |
| RTP above 100 or missing | Reject the input. | Require a visible RTP assumption before calculating. |
| Max cashout cap | Show cap-adjusted ceiling separately from raw estimate. | Warn that cap language can dominate the result. |
| Custom contribution | Accept a visible custom contribution from 0.01% to 100% and reject values outside that range. | Warn when contribution is below 10% because the real burden can become impractical. |
| Cap type selector | Model no cap, fixed dollar cap, x bonus cap, x deposit cap, x modeled value cap, or unknown cap separately. | Tell the user that unknown cap wording makes the result low confidence. |
| x bonus and x deposit cap | Convert the multiplier into a dollar ceiling from the current bonus or deposit amount. | Show the cap as a ceiling, not as expected withdrawal. |
| Free-spin mode | Use free spins x estimated spin value as modeled offer value. | Warn that the result depends on a rough spin-value assumption. |
| Cashback mode | Use qualifying loss x cashback rate as modeled offer value. | Warn that cashback credit may still have wagering, cap or expiry terms. |
| Free-spin or cashback cap | Apply cap type to modeled free-spin or cashback value when the terms cap winnings or conversion. | Keep confidence low if spin value, cashback base or cap timing is unclear. |
| Expiry feasibility | Show wagering per day and estimated rounds when expiry/average bet are entered. | Warn that pressure is a reason to skip the offer, not to play longer. |
| Bankroll exposure | Show adjusted wagering as a multiple of starting funds when entered. | Warn when exposure is high enough to create bust/chasing pressure. |
| Offer terms decoder stop condition | If hidden contribution, split wallet, staged release or winnings-only terms are selected, recommend not modeling yet. | Route to reading exact terms instead of forcing a numeric answer. |
| Simulation without starting funds | Do not run the stress test. | Ask for starting funds and average bet before showing completion or bust pressure. |
| Average bet above max bet | Block the stress test when average bet exceeds the modeled max bet. | Tell the user to lower the average bet assumption instead of breaching terms. |
| Simulation with cap binding | Show cap binding probability when a modeled cap exists. | Explain that a binding cap limits upside and does not improve safety. |
| Copy and export evidence packet | Copy, print, TXT download and CSV download use assumptions only. | Warn users not to include private account, document or payment data. |
| FAQ schema parity | FAQPage schema includes only visible FAQ questions and answers. | Keep structured data aligned with what users can read on the page. |
| Scenario presets | Each preset fills the relevant mode, contribution, RTP, cap and format-specific fields, then recalculates. | Label presets as examples, not recommendations to claim. |
| Shareable result URL | Generate a URL with offer assumptions only and omit starting funds, average bet, identity, account and payment data. | Warn users not to include personal data when sharing. |
| Query parameter loading | Recognized query parameters populate inputs, custom contribution is handled safely, and the calculator recalculates. | Ignore unknown parameters instead of treating them as verified terms. |
| Chasing pressure | Do not route to a casino or bonus. | Use responsible-gambling support if the result creates urgency or loss-recovery pressure. |
Calculator test log
| Last automated QA run | May 14, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Passed cases | 24/24 visible calculator QA cases |
| Scope | Core formula, cap type, custom contribution, scenario presets, share URL, query loading, decoder, evidence packet, stress-test validation and schema parity. |
| Boundary | This log checks calculator behavior and page markup. It does not certify operator terms, payout approval, legality, KYC or real-session outcomes. |
Source register
| Status | Source or evidence | Used for | Refresh rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| VERIFIED | Internal formula registry, Bonus Value Model v2.2. | Wagering base, adjusted wagering, expected loss, modeled bonus EV, cap ceiling and confidence labels. | Review quarterly and whenever a bonus-model page changes. |
| VERIFIED | How we test, Editorial policy, and affiliate disclosure. | Methodology, independence, and commercial-separation language. | Review with every tools update. |
| VERIFIED | NCPG help resources and helpline information. | National responsible-gambling support language. | Re-check quarterly and after NCPG routing updates. |
| EVIDENCE REQUIRED BEFORE EXACT CLAIM | Current operator bonus terms, game contribution table, RTP screen, max cashout wording, free-spin value terms, cashback/lossback terms, expiry wording, KYC and withdrawal terms. | Any claim that a real offer can clear, pay, remain available, or be withdrawn. | Check the exact offer before relying on the result. |
Bonus calculator FAQ
Does a positive result mean the bonus is worth claiming?
No. A positive simple result can still be beaten by max cashout, expiry, excluded games, KYC review, payment restrictions, or a state/operator availability issue.
Why does game contribution change the result so much?
Contribution controls how much real play counts toward wagering. If a game counts 20%, the same headline multiple can require five times as much actual wagering.
Can I use this for no-deposit or free-spin bonuses?
Yes, but only as an estimate. Choose the no-deposit or free-spin mode, enter the cap and wagering rules if shown, and treat the result as lower confidence if spin value, eligible games, max cashout, expiry or withdrawal review is unclear.
What is the difference between bonus-only and deposit-plus-bonus wagering?
Bonus-only wagering multiplies the promotional amount. Deposit-plus-bonus wagering multiplies the deposit and promotional amount together, which can make the real playthrough burden much heavier.
What does max cashout do to bonus value?
A max cashout or conversion cap can limit the amount that can be withdrawn even when a raw expected-value estimate looks positive. Always model the cap separately from the headline bonus.
Why can a sticky bonus show low confidence?
Sticky or phantom bonuses are usually not withdrawable as principal. That means the calculator can estimate burden, but the result depends heavily on exact wallet, wagering and withdrawal terms.
Can the stress test predict whether I will clear the bonus?
No. The stress test is a rough browser-based pressure check, not a game-specific RNG or paytable simulation. Use high bust risk as a reason to skip, not to increase stakes.
What should I save before opting in?
Save the full bonus terms, contribution table, max cashout wording, max bet rule, expiry, game eligibility, KYC and withdrawal rules, plus the calculator evidence packet. Do not save or share private account details.
Changelog
May 14, 2026: upgraded to Bonus Value Model v2.2 with bonus-only, deposit-plus-bonus, no-deposit, sticky, free-spin and cashback modes; added custom contribution, cap type selector, cap-adjusted ceiling, effective multiple, confidence level, expiry pressure, estimated rounds, bankroll exposure, one-click scenario presets, shareable result URLs without private data, auto-fill side-by-side offer comparison, mode-specific evidence packet with copy/print/TXT/CSV export, manual term checklist, bonus clause decoder, bonus clause library, common clause presets, anonymized terms examples, offer-quality signals, mode-specific next actions, RTP-preserving advanced variance stress test with methodology and calibration examples, expanded QA tests, public test log, expanded visible FAQ and FAQPage schema, owner intent, privacy notice, formula registry, source register, mobile table cards, no-News navigation, clearer result interpretation, and safer follow-up routing.
Apr 24, 2026: rebuilt as a simple bonus-only calculator with disclosure before the tool and scoped model assumptions.
Maintained and reviewed by
Maintained by The Playbook USA Tools Team. Written by Michael Johnson, edited by Sarah Roberts, and responsible-gambling language reviewed by David Thompson.
Review scope: bonus value modes, wagering-base boundaries, custom contribution, cap type logic, free-spin/cashback assumptions, confidence labels, expiry pressure, estimated rounds, bankroll exposure, side-by-side comparison, evidence packet, manual term checklist, variance stress test, and link integrity to deeper follow-up pages.
Last updated: May 14, 2026. Formula reviewed: May 14, 2026. This page is informational only and is not legal, tax, financial, gambling, payout, or operator advice.
Responsible gambling help
For national help in the U.S., call or text 1-800-MY-RESET, or use online chat through the National Council on Problem Gambling. Existing access points may remain active, and state-specific resources may vary.
Help routing checked: May 14, 2026. Re-check NCPG phone, text, and chat wording before each quarterly tools update.
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